There’s always a horserace between rivals Ford Motor Company and General Motors. Sometimes it’s trucks, sometimes it’s Pony Cars. Well, today it’s EV sales. At least one analyst is confident Ford is going to sell more EV’s this year than GM, and they’re probably right.

According to a research report published by Morgan Stanley on Monday, Ford is on track to sell 27,399 EV’s this year, compared to GM’s 24,810. Subsequently, the report forecasts that Ford will continue to outsell GM EV sales next year as well. They’re forecasting around 150,000 Ford EV sales in 2022, versus 114,000 from GM. In the long run, GM is forecasted to overtake Ford as Detroit’s EV leader, but the lead isn’t huge in this forecast.

On one hand Ford overtaking GM in EV sales comes as a bit of a surprise. Ford has lagged behind GM when it comes to electrification, whereas the Chevrolet Bolt EV has been a popular EV option for several years. However, putting this into the context of this year, it isn’t a surprise at all. Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV sales have been suspended for most of 2021 due to a defective battery. Assuming Bolt sales do not resume between now and the end of the year, it is almost a certainty Ford will win this race.

Meanwhile, the Blue Oval brand has launched the very popular Mustang Mach E. The brand’s first high-volume EV model has been a sales success globally and is putting Ford in the pole position for EV sales this year and next. Once the F-150 Lightning launches next year, Ford will really have two solid, high-volume EV’s in the stable.

Over at GM, they aren’t sitting still either. The GMC brand is actually going to book some Hummer EV sales between now and the end of the year. These volumes are expected to be very low and are unlikely to buoy GM’s EV sales enough to overtake Ford. Next year GM will start booking sales of the Cadillac Lyriq EV as well, which will also help their overall EV numbers.

This is likely the start of yet another friendly rivalry between these two automakers that we’ll be watching for many years to come. At least for now, Ford appears to have this race locked for 2021.