Market research firm IHS Automotive is projecting that total light-vehicle sales may decline by up to 2.8 million units through 2018 as a result of the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union.
Through to the end of 2016, IHS is predicting global deliveries of 89.82 million units, a drop of roughly 200,000 registrations from volumes projected prior the referendum. Estimates for 2017 have also been reduced by 1.25 million units, while revised forecasts for 2018 place the drop at 1.38 million fewer vehicles.
IHS Principal Analyst Ian Fletcher says in the report that “the U.K. is, unsurprisingly, anticipated to bear the brunt of the impact.” While the U.K. car market was originally predicted to expand by 3.2 percent this year, the growth rate has since been downgraded to 1 percent and is expected to be followed by declines of 9.1 percent in 2017 and 7.8 percent in 2018.
The U.K.-based society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders estimates that roughly 80 percent of the vehicles built in the U.K. are sold abroad, 60 percent of which are shipped to EU member countries.